As every smoker in Japan knows, the cigarette tax was raised in the fall of 2010. With ¥3.5 added to each cigarette, it means a pack suddenly cost at least ¥70 more, and as a result sales have dropped by about 20 percent. So-called sin taxes are double-barrelled: They have a behavior modification purpose of discouraging users from over-indulging, and they’re an easy political sell since the consumers (and maker/providers) usually aren’t considered a sympathetic or powerful constituency by the general public. Consequently, the government is thinking of adding another ¥2 per cigarette tax levy to help pay for reconstruction.
The suggestion has been tabled for the time being, though it will likely be revived. The main reason for the postponement isn’t so much Japan Tobacco, which has a monopoly on tobacco sales in Japan, but rather the farmers who supply JT. There are approximately 10,000 households that make a living from growing tobacco, and about 40 percent have said that they plan to quit since they see no future in the crop. The presumed reason is the tax and the trend for quitting, but many farmers say they are getting out of tobacco because JT asked them to. Since JT is obliged to buy all their product, these farmers no longer have a guaranteed future, and with the Trans-Pacific Partnership possibly looming on the horizon, there’s even less of an incentive to stick it out.
Tobacco, like salt and rice, used to be a government monopoly. That changed in 1985 when the monopolies were abolished and Japan Tobacco was established. Despite the change in nomenclature, JT pretty much continued to operate as a monopoly, since it had to buy all the tobacco produced and controlled all sales of cigarettes. JT determined the price of tobacco before each growing season, meaning there was never a market for the crop. This worked fine while sales were strong, but after they peaked in the mid-90s revenues steadily decreased. Starting in 2004, JT solicited tobacco farmers to retire, and about 20 percent did exactly that. The amount of farmland dedicated to tobacco decreased by about 10 percent. Last year, JT asked more farmers to quit the game, and the decrease in farmland was 30 percent.