Your main assertion is: “However, a more specific truism bit the dust Sunday afternoon in Frankfurt when Japan came out on top, and that’s the notion that the more money you spend on a sport, the better your chances.”

The only evidence you provide for this is that it is a bigger business in the United States (though it must be said that the championship game didn’t even warrant playtime on a major network in the US (where it was shown on ESPN), as it did in Japan (on NHK)) and Nadeshiko beat the US. This alone doesn’t prove anything. Sports the world over are filled with the less well-paid teams succeeding, whether it’s Yakult this season in Japanese baseball or the Boston Bruins in the NHL. However, this doesn’t translate to their “chances” being better. I think all would agree that Yomiuri has better chances of beating Yakult, year in and year out, and that the US has better chances of beating Nadeshiko (sadly), year in and year out.

Unfortunately, a single win does materially alter this world of probability.