Archive for the ‘Taxes & Welfare’ Category

Australian EPA: Let them eat beef (but not cheese)

Monday, April 14th, 2014

Stuck in the middle: Australian cheese competing in the dairy case with New Zealand and Switzerland

Stuck in the middle: Australia cheese competing in the dairy case with New Zealand and Switzerland

Though its participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership seems to be dead in the water for the time being, last week Japan signed an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Australia that could revive Japan’s TPP hopes, but before we get to who lost and who won in the Australian deal, let’s talk about cheese.

Personally, we were looking forward to some sort or tariff reduction on Aussie cheese, not because we prefer Aussie cheese over other kinds, but because all so-called natural cheese — meaning not processed — is expensive in Japan owing to the dairy farmers lobby and their demand for high tariffs on imported milk products.

Japan is close to an EPA with the European Union, but the cheese tariff will likely remain. The Australian EPA only addresses natural cheese that is exported to Japan for purposes of being blended with other ingredients to make processed cheese. The tariff on such cheeses will be reduced from 40 to 0 percent over time, but the tariff on natural cheese that is sold to the public in stores will remain at 29.8 percent, so no cheap cheddar right away.

According to Asahi Shimbun, cheese consumption in Japan is steadily rising. Japanese bought 285,000 tons of cheese in 2012, twice as much as they did in 1992. The agriculture ministry predicts that consumption will increase by 40,000 tons over the next 10 years, and domestic production will not be able to satisfy this demand.

Nevertheless, dairy farmers insist on keeping the tariff at its current level, otherwise they say they’ll be wiped out. We’re talking small dairy farmers, not big companies like Meiji and Yukijirushi, which will probably benefit from the tariff since they deal in processed cheese. Naturally, Australian dairy farmers are disappointed that the tariff for natural cheese was not reduced, since the bulk of their export business is cheese for consumers, not cheese for processing.

On the other hand, beef producers are quite happy with the EPA. As a result of the agreement, beef exports to Japan are expected to increase by $5.5 billion (¥530 billion) over the next 20 years, which should give pause to American trade negotiators. Right now the tariff on beef is 38.5 percent, and that will decrease to 19.5 percent in 18 years for frozen beef and to 23.5 percent for refrigerated beef.

Vintners are even more encouraged by the EPA. In seven years the tariff on Australian wine to Japan will be reduced to zero, which means they’ll be more competitive with wines from Chile, which completed an EPA with Japan some years ago. Since then, sales of Australian wines in Japan declined by a third. Right now Australia claims 4 percent of Japan’s wine market and Chile 14 percent.

As with cheese, wine consumption in Japan is also on the rise, so Australian wine makers are confident they can regain the market share they lost when Chile signed its EPA with Japan. However, it should also be noted that in accordance with the aforementioned EPA that Japan is working out with the EU, European wine tariffs will also eventually be reduced to zero, so competition will likely get fiercer.

What does Japan get out of this? Mainly less restrictions for automobile sales in Australia. Half the goods and services exported to Australia from Japan is in the form of automobiles: 359,170 cars in 2013, second only to the U.S. — a far second, since American exported 1.7 million vehicles to Down Under. Japan was desperate to get a deal on cars because in accordance with a trade agreement with Korea, Australian duties on Korean cars will drop to zero by 2015.

For the record, 70 percent of Australian exports to Japan are in the energy and mining sectors — coal, natural gas, iron ore — and aren’t taxed because Japan no longer has much of a mining industry to protect and desperately needs these resources. However, it should be pointed out that Australia is No. 10 on the list of countries receiving Japanese exports, about ¥1.7 trillion a year; while Japan is No. 3 on the list of countries receiving Australian exports, about ¥5 trillion. So you decide who gets the better deal in this agreement.

Us? We’d rather have cheese.

Some local governments think health checkups save money, and some don’t

Saturday, April 5th, 2014

Preemptive stride: If you do have metabolic syndrome you can guess what the doctor will tell you to do

Preemptive stride: If you do have metabolic syndrome you can guess what the doctor will tell you to do

Though there’s a minority opinion to the contrary, conventional wisdom says that regular health checkups are the only way to prevent the development of major illnesses, so, logically, they should also help reduce healthcare costs in the long run. This is the concept behind tokutei kenko kensa, or “special health checkups,” that were started six years ago by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. The main target is metabolic syndrome, the inevitable gain in fat that accompanies midddle age and which, unchecked, is thought to be the gateway to many so-called lifestyle diseases, like diabetes.

The idea is that local governments would provide checkups to insured residents between the ages of 40 and 74 with national insurance, which, in principle, doesn’t cover regular general health checkups since Japan’s public health system is designed to treat existing problems. If the special checkups uncover unhealthy situations, then the individuals are advised with regard to better diets or exercise regimens, or even pharmaceutical assistance, so as to head off costly treatment down the road, like, for instance, dialysis, which can cost on average ¥5 million a year, most of which ends up being paid for by the government, both local and central.

According to the Asahi Shimbun more than half the nation’s local governments are struggling with deficits in their health insurance programs, and thus usually have to shift money from other sectors to pay for them. Consequently, many are intensifying their checkup programs in the hope that it will reduce these costs in the future. The tricky part is that with such programs you have to spend money to save it. As of 2012, Soja in Okayama Prefecture was only seeing 27 percent of residents eligible show up for the special checkup, so they came up with a scheme.

The special checkup and the locally sponsored cancer screening each cost ¥5,000, so if anyone who undergoes the checks and doesn’t use their insurance for a year afterward, the money will be refunded. Though it may not sound like much of an incentive, the main idea is to spread awareness of the checkups. Kiyosu, a city in Aichi Prefecture, increased its checkup rate to 46 percent after offering coupons that can be used for substantial discounts at over 100 stores and restaurants in the area to people who come in for the checkup. People who undergo the checkup are told not to eat anything that day beforehand, so the coupons are a kind of reward, though one has to wonder if it’s wise to encourage people who really do have metabolic syndrome to go out afterwards and partake of the town’s meibutsu (special local product), fried pork cutlet in sweet brown sauce.

Kumagaya in Saitama Prefecture saw its participation rate rise from 23 to 27 percent after it started offering travel coupons. Takanabe in Miyazaki Prefecture partnered with a local bank to offer participating residents a 0.05 percentage point bonus in interest on savings accounts, and the rate of participation jumped from 32 to 40 percent. Six separate districts in Higashi, Okinawa Prefecture started a competition to see which one could raise their participation rate the most, with the winning districts receiving cash bonuses ranging from ¥30,000 to ¥100,000, but since it was the district offices themselves getting this money it was difficult to pass the excitement of competition on to individual residents. In fact, after an initial spurt in participation the rate has fallen back down again, so the local governments are thinking of a new scheme that directly rewards residents.

Nationwide, however, the idea hasn’t been very successful. The health ministry aimed for a 65 percent participation rate, but latest figures show it’s only about 34 percent, a rise of only 2.8 percentage points since the checkup scheme was launched. For the most part, according to Asahi, local governments have no choice but to raise premiums on health insurance to address their deficits. The reasons for non-participation are not complicated. In surveys, people say they already visit a doctor regularly or don’t feel sick or just think it’s too much trouble, especially since many municipalities charge a nominal fee for the checkup.

In any case, there isn’t any real consensus on the efficacy of regular checkups on long-term medical costs. The city of Amagasaki did a study from 2008 to 2011 that found during these four years the average amount of money spent by the health insurance system on a resident who had undergone the checkups “and received medical advice” — about 65,000 people — was ¥990,000 less than the money spent on a resident who didn’t receive the checkup. However, Kure, in Hiroshima Prefecture, managed to decrease its outlays for medical care by ¥160 million in 2011-12 by eliminating “unnecessary” examinations, meaning they actively discourage residents from seeing a doctor for routine matters, and didn’t promote the special checkups, either. One bureaucrat told the Asahi that he understands the “significance” of the checkup but wonders if it may actually be a waste of money given that its underlying purpose is economical.

Consumption tax hike projected to increase appeal of electronic money

Monday, March 24th, 2014

The ones: You'll be seeing more of these guys in the near future

The ones: You’ll be seeing more of these guys in the near future

Last month the national mint intensified production of ¥1 coins in anticipation of the consumption tax hike on April 1. The Ministry of Finance wants 26 million of them manufactured by the end of March, and then another 160 million after the start of the new fiscal year. Once the consumption tax goes up from 5 to 8 percent, retailers will need more small change. With a 5 percent tax, it’s relatively easy for stores to limit their use of coins since they can set prices based on multiples of 5. Maybe it’s possible to do that with multiples of 8, too, but not right away, and many fear they will not have enough ¥1 coins on hand when the tax hike goes into effect. An employee of the nationwide ¥100 shop CanDo told Asahi Shimbun, “Altough we sometimes receive ¥1 coins in payment from customers, we don’t recycle them as change to other customers, but now we’re trying to hoard as many as possible.”

If the consumption tax increase is an inconvenience to retailers, it’s even more of a pain in the neck for the government, since it costs between ¥2 and ¥3 to make a ¥1 coin, which is 100 percent aluminum. It’s the first time the mint has produced ¥1 coins on anything approaching this scale in four years. It will also produce an extra 100 million ¥5 coins, just to be safe. The government doesn’t want to relive the small change panic that happened in 1989, when the 3 percent consumption tax was first introduced. Tokyo Shimbun reports that it took the finance ministry three years to put into circulation the extra 7.5 billion ¥1 coins necessary to make the new tax workable. Then, when the consumption tax went up to 5 percent in 1997 the demand for ¥1 coins decreased. At present there are 39 billion ¥1 coins in circulation, which is 3 billion less than the peak number in circulation in 2002.

But the development that really started making small change obsolete was the introduction of electronic money in 2001 with the emergence of the Edy card system, which is now owned by the Internet mall Rakuten. According to the Bank of Japan, in 2012 electronic money was used for ¥2.5 trillion in transactions, which is three times the amount used in 2008. Understandably, the electronic money industry thinks the consumption tax hike will increase usage even more. Edy, which is accepted at 370,000 retailers and vending machines nationwide, told Asahi that it is using the opportunity of the hike to increase consumer awareness for their system, and will offer bonus points for new users who sign up. NTT DoCoMo, which offers the iD electronic money system through wallet functions in mobile phones, now accepted at 514,000 points-of-sale (POS), says it is contracting with even more retailers to install electronic readers, as well as with parking lots and restaurants.

The biggest beneficiary may be EM systems run by transportation entities. Suica and Pasmo cards, each of which are usable at 240,000 POS, offer commuters and travelers a discount. People who buy tickets for train and bus rides will pay more since transport companies will round up fares to the nearest multiple of ¥10 after April 1, while EM users will pay the exact fare. For instance, a JR fare that now costs ¥450 will increase to ¥464 with the tax hike, and that is what EM users will pay. Ticket-buyers, however, will have to pay ¥470.

The mint isn’t the only institution working overtime to compensate for the tax hike. Japan Post is rushing to print ¥2 stamps to augment ¥50 postcards and ¥80 letter stamps. For the past 20 years, all postage has been in multiples of ¥10, so there was never a need for post offices to stock ¥1 coins.

But all this printing and minting will be short-lived if the consumption tax is hiked again, to 10 percent, in the fall of 2015, which is what the government is planning to do. In that case, the tax will actually be a multiple of 10, thus making it easy for everyone, especially cashiers who now dread all those elderly people wasting their time as they dig through their purses and pockets for exact change.

Government’s new scheme to bolster social security is still hopeless

Monday, March 10th, 2014

This document was sent out several years ago after the government discovered that it had lost the pension payment records of 50 million people. The document would be used to help locate those records. The program was expensive, but very few people responded.

This document was sent out several years ago after the government discovered that it had lost the pension payment records of 50 million people. The document would be used to help locate those records. The program was expensive, but very few people responded.

The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare has announced that starting in April it will “take action” to increase the “collection rate” of national pension premiums, specifically those for kokumin nenkin, the obligatory pension plan for the self-employed and those who otherwise don’t belong to the company-supported kosei nenkin pension system. According to Tokyo Shimbun the idea is to send warning letters to individuals whose incomes are more than ¥4 million and who haven’t contributed for at least 13 consecutive months.

Presumably, the next step will be for the ministry to start siezing assets. The initial criteria would target approximately 140,000 pension scofflaws. Eventually, however, they will go after everyone who hasn’t paid, and since it is estimated that close to 3 million people who should be paying into the system haven’t been for at least 24 months, the job seems daunting if not impossible.

There are many reasons for this delinquency, but the main one has to do with the system itself. Basic pensions apply not only to the self-employed, but anyone who is employed part-time or on a contract basis, meaning their employers don’t pay into the kosei nenkin system. It also includes the unemployed, because according to the law every adult who lives in Japan must belong to the system, whether they work or not. And the premiums are the same, regardless of income or lack thereof: right now ¥15,250 a month (it goes up gradually every year).

The ministry assumes that about 90,000 people who should be “members” are not, and that number is probably higher, but in any case, excluding those who are exempt from paying (very poor, disabled, etc.), the rate of payment into the kokumin nenkin fund was only 59 percent as of 2012, and that portion continues to decline.

In a 2011 government survey, the number one demographic of delinquents was the unemployed, which is easy to understand. However, 28 percent of delinquent payers had part-time jobs, and they said they didn’t make enough to pay. Moreover, 22 percent of the so-called deadbeats were self-employed or working in their families’ businesses. Overall, 74 percent of those who said they couldn’t pay gave their reason as “can’t afford the premiums.” The percentage is increasing because the number of non-regular employees is also increasing.

But the government says that 10.5 percent of households whose income exceeds ¥10 million have also failed to pay their fair share, and it’s these people they are citing first. After that, 17 percent of households with incomes of between ¥5 and ¥10 million are delinquent. Both of these seemingly solvent income brackets say in surveys that they, too, cannot afford the premiums due to “financial difficulties,” but there is also a considerable number who refuse to pay simply because they “don’t trust the system.”

The pension system’s fairness has always been a point of contention. As it stands, if a person pays his fair share for 40 years, the maximum monthly payment he receives at 65 will be ¥66,000, which is not enough to live off of. The main concept behind kokumin nenkin when it was first devised was that the self-employed would still have income from their businesses or the sale of their businesses when they retired. Not only is that not necessarily true, but the bulk of basic pension members are non-regular employees who have nothing else to fall back on when they retire, unless they’ve saved and invested, which is unlikely.

Also, everyone in Japan must also pay into the national health insurance plan, which for most people takes priority since anyone can get sick at any time, but you only retire when you get old. Then there are people with some money who have bought life insurance annuity plans that give them some income when they retire. They may not see the point in paying double for a pension, so they don’t bother paying nenkin.

But the most discouraging aspect of the system is that in order to receive even the minimum payment at retirement, which is less than ¥30,000 a month, you have to pay into the system for at least 25 years. Regardless of one’s mathematical skills, it doesn’t take much calculating to understand that paying ¥15,000 a month for 25 years for a pension that will be so low one will have to apply for supplemental welfare (which is increasingly the case) is not worth it.

What’s particularly maddening about the government’s refusal to acknowledge reality is that it continues to throw money at the problem. Tokyo Shimbun estimates that for every ¥100 that the ministry will collect with its new hardline policy starting in April, it will spend ¥90. In real terms, the ministry has budgeted ¥5.3 billion for “forced collections.” Also, according to the law, it can only make delinquents pay up to two years retroactively, and if the individual has been delinquent for much longer than that the individual may wonder, “What’s the point?,” since he can only receive a pension if he’s paid for a full 25 years.

There is no sense to the system, especially when you consider that the Democratic Party of Japan wanted to change it to something more rational, and made the Liberal Democratic Party promise to revise the system when it gave up the reins of government in December 2012. Since then the LDP has done nothing, because it believes that any change would be unfair to the people who have paid into the system properly all along. Famous last words.

Tax structure encourages getting wasted

Monday, March 3rd, 2014

Zero's not in it: Selection of Suntory chuhai at discount store

Zero’s not in it: Selection of Suntory chuhai at discount store

There’s no end to speculation as to how the consumption tax increase in April will affect the country, socially as well as economically. Last week, Tokyo Shimbun published a conversation between a college professor and one of its reporters about the effect on beer prices and, in turn, beer consumption, which last year declined for the ninth year in a row.

When the reporter asks the professor about this effect the professor feigns amazement that the reporter, who specializes in tax matters, didn’t know that “42 percent of the price you pay for your beer is already tax.” He goes on to explain that the beer tax is a holdover from the 19th century, when beer was considered a luxury item. Since then it’s become much more the drink of common people thanks to improved and cheaper refrigeration, but the government liked the revenues too much and maintained the tax structure for beer. To the professor’s thinking, the tax should be pegged to alcoholic content, and since beer’s is relatively low the tax should also be lower than it is for other alcoholic beverages.

It’s easy to get people to pay the tax since it isn’t indicated on the package or even at the place of sale, unlike the consumption tax. For the sake of reference, when you buy a 350-ml can of beer you pay ¥77 in tax. If you bought the same volume of whiskey you’d pay ¥129 in tax; shochu ¥70, nihonshu ¥42 and wine ¥28.

Basically, that means the consumption tax is levied on a tax, since the consumption tax is determined by the price that the wholesaler and retailer pays for the product, which, by the time they receive it, already includes the alcohol tax that is levied at the manufacturing stage. “When the government said they’d increase the consumption tax, people got angry,” says the professor. “But no one says anything about the alcohol tax, because people don’t notice it.” The reporter thinks that a “tax on a tax” violates the principle of taxation. The professor doesn’t disagree, and adds that beer accounts for half the revenues brought in by the alcohol tax. Because beer makers are large companies with responsible accounting practices, it’s easy for the Finance Ministry to collect the tax. The reporter says, “Why don’t manufacturers get angry?”

Actually, that’s why they started making the “beer-like” happoshu in the late ’90s. Because the ingredients used in happoshu are different from those that define beer for tax purposes, the beer tax doesn’t apply, and so makers could sell it at a much lower price. The government, of course, didn’t like that and eventually raised the tax rate for happoshu, too, though not as high as it is for beer (¥46 for a 350-ml can). Makers came back again with dai-san (third type) beverages, which use fermented soybeans for flavor instead of hops, and that got around the happoshu tax (¥28 for 350-ml). But while these new, cheaper brews outsold “real” beer handily, sales for all three beverages have still decreased over time, due to the shrinking population and a younger generation of consumers who don’t drink as much as their parents did.

In that regard, beer makers don’t see much of an impact of the consumption tax hike on beer and beer-like beverage sales; or, at least, they don’t see any point in trying to offset the hike. But they are modifying their lines of canned drinks that contain shochu, colloquially called chuhai. As the price of chuhai goes up thanks to the consumption tax, they are increasing the alcohol content. In fact, many companies have already added more alcohol to their chuhai products.

Kirin Beer increased its Hyoketsu Strong from 8 percent to 9 percent alcohol, and in April it will boost its Hon-shibori Lime chuhai drink from 6 to 8 percent.

Asahi Beer is already advertising its new Karakuchi Shochu Highball, which is 8 percent, in a bid to persuade normal fans of high balls — whiskey and soda — to switch to shochu and soda. That’s a full 5 percentage points higher than Asahi’s other chuhai, Slat, and both beverages will be sold for the same price. (Note: Slat is aimed at young women and the word suggests slimness, though an English speaker may be forgiven for thinking the name an unfortunate choice for such a target group.)

Suntory’s chuhai product, -196 Degrees C Strong, which enjoyed a 22 percent share of the chuhai market in 2012 thanks to its already hefty alcohol content, will be strengthened from 8 to 9 percent. The company told Asahi Shimbun that it expects sales to grow by 8 percent.

The target is middle-aged and elderly men, the main demographic for alcoholic beverages anyway. Makers think they will be attracted to the cost effectiveness, according to the Asahi, which means they can “get drunk more easily” for the same amount of money. In many countries, tax on alcohol is referred to as a “sin tax,” since it has a double-edged purpose: raising revenues on a product or service that may be harmful to society, on the one hand, and on the other checking consumption of the harmful product or service by making it more expensive.

This latter purpose doesn’t seem to apply in Japan, where alcohol companies have figured out a way to use the tax structure to their advantage. There’s no sin in that.

For young women sex industry offers safety net the government doesn’t

Wednesday, February 26th, 2014

A sign teases sexual services.

A sign teases sexual services.

One of the pillars of Abenomics is getting more women to join the workforce, but since last fall, when a young woman in Osaka was found in her apartment starved to death, the media has been reporting dire statistics about poverty among women. According to government statistics, one-third of females who are productively employable and living alone make less than ¥1.14 million a year, which demarcates the government’s poverty line.

The peak year of employment in Japan was 1997, when 38.92 million men had jobs and 26.65 million women. In 2012, the number of male workers had dropped to 36 million, while that of females had declined less, to 26.5 million. In 2012, women made up 42.3 percent of the workforce, a three percentage point increase since 1980. However, the stability of that work seems to be going in the opposite direction. The number of non-regular and part-time workers is on the increase, but the number of women in this group is disproportionately larger: 57.5 percent for females to 22.1 percent for males. Without regular employment and the opportunity for periodic pay raises, these women invariably fall into a cycle of poverty from which they can never escape. The situation for single mothers is even worse: 80 percent of those who work fall below the poverty line, even with government assistance factored in.

NHK’s evening in-depth news program, “Closeup Gendai,” has aired a series of reports on poor young women. One program broadcast in late January profiled several. There was a teenage girl working at a convenience store to support her sick mother and three siblings while taking a high school equivalency course that she hopes will lead to a night school program that will earn her a license to teach nursery school, but the program will cost her ¥80,000 a month, which means she’ll have to take out a loan that will be paid back when — and if — she gets a job. There’s a woman from Aomori Prefecture who worked three jobs but still couldn’t make enough to support herself since the minimum wage in the prefecture is only ¥650, so she came to Tokyo, where the minimum wage is higher, but so are living expenses.

Experts interviewed by NHK point out that women have traditionally taken low-paying service jobs because they weren’t expected to stay on, eventually marrying and having children. But now young women don’t have as many marriage prospects due to lower incomes for marriageable men. More of them have to support themselves, but there are only these low-paying service jobs which aren’t enough to live off of. The cycle of poverty is already in gear, because these women’s parents are themselves poor, which is why they no longer live with them. When a reporter asks one woman if she hopes to have children one day, she looks at him as if he were crazy. She can’t even feed herself. How could she feed a child?

But there are women trying to do just that. One 28-year-old single mother in Hiroshima is raising a 2-year-old and a 4-year-old. She makes ¥100,000 a month and receives a child allowance of ¥40,000 from the government. She herself grew up in a poor family and had to start working when she graduated from junior high school.

But according to one program in the series there is an area of hope for such women: the sex industry (fuzokuten). Massage parlors and escort services offer not only dormitories for staff, but also daycare if the workers have young children. Want ads indicating such benefits are common, but the NHK director could only find one company that would agree to coverage. The camera shows the manager of the business talking on the phone, telling a customer that the fee is “¥19,000 for 90 minutes, if you don’t state a preference for a worker.” At this company, 40 percent of the fee goes to the company and the rest is kept by the worker. The manager says they get a lot of applicants, especially from single mothers because of the daycare. Though some businesses run their own daycare, most contract with outside services. The dorm is also a big draw, though the manager points out that “sometimes there are more staff than there are available rooms.”

One of the employees interviewed by NHK says she is 21 and has an 18-month-old daughter. She had to start working right after the girl was born, but there are no daycare facilities that accept infants. She had no choice but to work here, and in six months she has managed to save ¥700,000. She makes ¥300,000 a month. “When I’m 25 I’ll probably have to quit, and my parents don’t know I work here,” she tells the director, but by that time she hopes to have a lot of money saved. Another interviewee is in her 30s, also a single mother. She is here to look for a job. She once worked in the sex industry but quit when she got another job. Then she fell ill and applied for welfare, but was told it would take two months to check her background and than another month to process her application. She can’t wait three months.

During the seven days that NHK covered the business, it hired 15 new employees. Though the information reported on the program is sobering, several Internet commentators have pointed out that these conditions have always been the norm in the sex industry, but it’s only now that people are paying attention because of the economic situation.

 

Image via furibond

Consumption tax rush approaching peak time

Tuesday, February 18th, 2014

Curb your enthusiasm: Don't rush out and buy an aircon to beat the tax hike since it will probably be cheaper afterwards anyway

Curb your enthusiasm: Don’t rush out and buy an aircon to beat the tax hike since it will probably be cheaper afterwards anyway

Retailers continue to enjoy good business in the runup to the consumption tax hike on April 1, but some are a bit anxious that consumers may not understand the situation sufficiently. Tokyo Shimbun visited a few Tokyo department stores where the rush to buy is especially intense, causing them to post clarifying announcements to head off any attendant disappointment.

At Isetan, these notices are posted prominently in the furniture and bedding sections, as well as the eyeglass section, meaning departments where people order merchandise and then take delivery later. As one Isetan employee explained to the paper, the consumption tax is applied on the day of receipt of merchandise, not on the day it was ordered or even on the day it was paid for. A good portion of department store sales are order-made products, and the notices are cautioning customers to make sure they understand the date their stuff will be ready to pick up, otherwise they may end up paying more than they thought they would.

Keio department store is telling all its customers about the rule so that “there is no misunderstanding.” Daimaru Matsuzaka, near Tokyo Station, has seen sales of order-made men’s suits climb to 14.4 percent higher than last year, a new record, but the closer they get to March the more nervous they are since some suits take longer to make than others. Takashimaya in Nihonbashi is apparently the most conscientious department store, posting very detailed explanations in all its sections that insist the earlier you order something, the more likely it will be you can avoid the extra 3 percent charge.

However, a related article in the weekly Aera says that consumers shouldn’t worry that much, since there’s a good chance people will buy something now to avoid the tax hike only to end up paying more. Some retailers are not as straightforward as the above-mentioned department stores, using the rush as a means of getting customers to sign up for credit cards in order to compound their savings without realizing that in the end they’ll probably have to pay handling fees that will negate such savings, unless they happen to be frequent patrons of the store, in which case they probably already have a card. The magazine interviewed a few housewives who plan to make big purchases ahead of the tax hike.

One woman says she is going to buy all new household appliances, while another in her early 30s will buy baby shower and wedding gifts for friends who will celebrate these happy events in the near future, but as she said, “often these gifts go on sale in July, so I don’t know if I’m actually saving money by buying them now.”

A financial planner told Aera that it may be a mistake to buy some big ticket items now. Air conditioner sales, for instance, tend to be their lowest in March, which is between the cold and the hot seasons. That’s also when manufacturers put out new models, which means last year models will be quite cheap, so he advises to wait. Even after April 1, the price could be considerably less than they are now, even taking the tax hike into consideration. But automobiles and home improvement work, he says, should be ordered right now, if it already isn’t too late, because they require time before final delivery and there are no bargain sales associated with either. For mini-cars (kei jidosha), in particular, now is the time to buy since next year the car tax for buying one will increase by 50 percent.

In the end, here are items that Aera recommends buying now to beat the tax: household appliances; over-the-counter drugs that can be stored for long periods, like aspirin; gold, since the purchaser can buy at a lower tax rate and sell at a higher one; theme park tickets; long-term commuting passes and train tickets in bulk (kaisuken).

Items that Aera doesn’t recommend buying now: PCs and TVs, because they always go on sale; apparel and accessories, which tend to be much cheaper during semiannual bargain sales; real estate and stocks; gems and platinum, which, unlike gold, are more vulnerable to price fluctuations; and everyday necessities like toilet paper, which people all over the world tend to buy up whenever there is some sort of financial panic.

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