Archive for the ‘Economy’ Category

Casino tax study exposes pachinko to greater scrutiny

Monday, September 8th, 2014

Where's the money? Pachinko patrons at an off-site exchange booth

Where’s the money? Pachinko patrons at an off-site exchange booth

In line with plans to make casino gambling legal in Japan, the government needs to come up with some sort of scheme to tax gambling receipts, but even before they do that they have to address another problematic potential revenue source: pachinko. As it stands, pachinko winnings are not taxed and pro-casino forces are thinking of implementing a 1 percent levy on those winnings, so they went to the National Police Agency and asked for figures to see what kind of tax revenues they could expect. An NPA representative told them, seemingly with a straight face, that they don’t keep such statistics since there are no winnings.

Classic pachinko is like pinball in that the player earns points by being able to send balls into certain holes, which gives him more balls to play with. In gambling terms, a player wins when he ends up with more balls than what he started with. However, pachinko parlors cannot reimburse the player for the balls he wins. Instead they give him tokushu keihin (special premiums) — ball point pens, lighter flints, etc. — in exchange for balls. Then, he can take those premiums to an off-site, unaffiliated shop that buys them with cash. The shop then sells the premiums back to a wholesaler, which, in turn, redistributes tham back to pachinko parlors.

This “three-shop exchange system” (santen kokan hoshiki) bypasses anti-gambling laws because the venue where the customer plays the game does not offer cash rewards. Everyone understands this system and how it works, but the police representative told the group of lawmakers that they don’t have figures because “we don’t know anything about places” where pachinko players exchange prizes for money.

According to the Asahi Shimbun, the lawmakers were “disgusted” with this ingenuous display of “tatemae” (official principle). The group, established last February, believes a 1 percent tax on pachinko winnings would generate ¥200 billion a year in revenues for the government, which is important since the present administration has decided to reduce the amount of corporate tax it collects and has to make up the shortfall somehow. Consequently, according to the Asahi, these lawmakers have to “destroy” the illusion that people don’t exchange pachinko balls for cash, which means they have to publicize the three-shop system and explain it for what it is, which is gambling by indirection.

The system was devised in Osaka in the 1960s. At the time, players exchanged the premiums they won for cash directly from organized crime members. Later, the police forced underworld elements out of the business and entrusted the exchange system to local chapters of the Japan War-Bereaved Families Association, which consists of people who lost heads-of-household and other loved ones on the front lines in World War II.

It was a form of public welfare, and at this point the NPA acknowledged, albeit tacitly, that pachinko exchanges weren’t strictly illegal any more. Eventually, they set up their own bureaucratic organization, the Pachinko Gyokai Dantai (Pachinko Industry Group), and staffed it with retired NPA officials to administer the exchange system. Some media have said that profits from the system go into the police pension fund and other NPA-related schemes. In any case, the police have never allowed anyone outside this organization to have anything to do with the system.

So if the government passes a law to tax pachinko winnings it would be an automatic admission that pachinko is gambling, so there is a fundamental disconnect between the government and the police with regards to the game. This could spell trouble for the proposed Casino Promotion Law, since foreign companies want to invest in casinos but will certainly ask why their businesses are taxed and pachinko parlors aren’t. That’s why the government wants to clarify the situation. On July 24, lawmakers essentially told the police that if they cooperate they won’t be held responsible for the last 30 years of looking the other way with regards to a semi-legal gambling system, but the NPA seems loath to admit as much.

In a separate interview with the Asahi, pachinko writer Pokka Yoshida explained the situation in more detail, saying that the the police-controlled Pachinko Gyokai Dantai isn’t, as some may think, corrupted by the pachinko industry itself. In actuality, they control the industry, which is in thrall to the three-shop exchange system. If the police take that system away, the industry is nothing, so they do anything the police ask.

In Yoshida’s words, the pachinko industry is in a constant state of crackdown. The relationship started in 1985 when the Law to Regulate Businesses that Affect Public Morals (fuzoku eigyo-ho) was revised. Police said they were going to be more aggressive about controlling pachinko, and later introduced a prepaid card system for buying pachinko balls in parlors.

The person who promoted this system was Katsuei Hirasawa, a Diet politician who was once an NPA bureaucrat. The idea was to understand exactly how much money pachinko parlors were making, since the industry was famous for fudging accounts and evading taxes and sending money to North Korea, where many people in the industry had families. In order to spread the use of prepaid cards, the police controlled the manufacture of certain new types of pachinko machines that allowed proprietors to adjust the odds of winning so that they could “incentivize” their parlors: Players are always looking for machines with better odds of winning. Police made sure that when these machines were manufactured, they couldn’t accept cash, only prepaid cards.

When pachinko became a “social problem” in the late ’90s, according to Yoshida, the police, through the PGD, had some 700,000 “socially problematic” machines removed from parlors. As it happens, these were cash machines, thus establishing the prepaid card system as the standard. But now, Yoshida says, the actual pachinko industry is trying to get away from police control, and so they are working with “the political world” behind the scenes to break free of the PGD. The police, understandably, are resisting.

Prep schools succumbing to more than economic reality

Monday, September 1st, 2014

In recent weeks the yobiko Yoyogi Seminar announced that it would be closing 20 of its 27 schools nationwide by March of next year. The reason is clear and has been for years: enrollment is dropping with no bottom in sight.

Yoyogi Seminar in Tsudanuma, Chiba Prefecture, which is one of the branches scheduled to close

Yoyogi Seminar in Tsudanuma, Chiba Prefecture, one of the branches scheduled to close

The term “yobiko” is sometimes translated as “cram school” and sometimes as “prep school,” and so they tend to be mixed up with juku, another education-related term translated as “cram school.” Practically speaking there is no real difference, since both forms of enterprise prepare students to take entrance tests for higher institutions of learning. But juku tend to be associated with elementary school and junior high school students, while yobiko are more often attended by high school students who want to get into name universities.

Just as often they are used by high school graduates who are doing the same. Since these grads are not attending a for-credit school at the time, they are referred to as ronin, the word that described masterless samurai in the past. And in a sense it is the loss of ronin that made Yoyogi Seminar realize its future was in jeopardy. This past spring, according to the education ministry, 80,000 ronin took college entrance tests. In 1994, the number was 280,000.

The obvious reason for the loss of ronin is that the so-called “narrow gate” for entering universities has widened over the years. As the birthrate continues to remain low the number of available students has dwindled, and at the same time the number of universities has actually increased, from 552 20 years ago to 781 as of the beginning of this year. Schools, especially those lower on the prestige scale, are desperate for paying students and thus have eased requirements for admission. Some don’t even require tests any more, but accept recommendations or school performance records. And without the entrance testing system most yobiko have no reason to exist.

CONTINUE READING about cram schools and ronin →

Local municipalities vie for your ‘hometown tax’

Monday, August 11th, 2014

Screen shot of web portal site for products being offered as gifts in exchange for "hometown tax" donations

Screen shot of web portal site for products being offered as gifts in exchange for “hometown tax” donations

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is already thinking about next year’s local government elections and in order to help their candidates is studying a possible increase in the maximum tax deduction afforded to people who contribute “hometown taxes” (furusato nozei), a system that was implemented in 2008 to help regional municipalities struggling with budget shortfalls.

Because an increasing portion of the population is concentrated in large metropolitan areas, local government tax bases are eroding. The hometown tax diverts some of the money people pay to big city governments to these smaller municipalities in the form of donations. In order to make the system attractive to taxpayers, the central government offered deductions not only for national income taxes, but also for local income taxes.

Taxpayers can donate funds to a local government that is different from the one where they live, and despite the name of the system it doesn’t have to be their hometown. It can be any locality. Say you live in Tokyo but you want to help out a town in Fukushima devastated in the disaster of 2011, something that many people have used the furusato nozei to do. If you donate 20,000 to that town in Fukushima through the hometown tax system you can get a deduction off your national tax bill this year, and since local income taxes are based on national income taxes, this deduction, as well as a separate deduction for charitable donations, is reflected in your local tax bill the following year, which will be lower that it would have been otherwise as a result. So for the ¥20,000 donation, the taxpayer ends up with an ¥18,000 tax savings (¥20,000 minus a ¥2,000 handling fee).

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What the government doesn’t pay in pensions it will have to make up for with welfare

Monday, July 7th, 2014

One of the biggest fiscal issues — if not the biggest fiscal issue — facing the government is the expected steep increase in the number of seniors who will require welfare benefits after retirement. Everyone assumes that the various national pension systems by themselves are not enough to sustain a minimum standard of living for the people who receive them, and so they will need additional income, either in terms of savings, returns from investments or wages.

Back to work?

Back to work?

In a recent survey conducted by the prime minister’s office and whose target respondents were people between the ages of 35 and 64, nearly 70 percent said that they are not now, nor do they think they will be, financially prepared for retirement. The government, anticipating this reality, several years ago passed a law to ensure that people who wish to work after their designated retirement age will be able to do so, though, as is often the case with socially-minded legislation, there is no compulsion toward employers to make this happen or any penalties if they don’t. It’s up to the employee and the employer working together.

In any case, when asked if they want to work after “retirement,” 31.4 percent of the respondents said they would after the age of 65, and 20.9 percent said they would want to do so after the age of 70. That means more than 52 percent want to work after the age of 60, which is still the standard retirement age at most companies. When asked why they want to work, 77 percent said “to make a living.”

As far as people who are trying to save money for their old age, only 1.6 percent admitted to having “more than enough,” with 21.7 percent saying they have saved or expect to have saved “the minimum necessary.” Of those who answered that they haven’t saved enough, half admit that their savings is “almost nothing,” with 74 percent in the 35-39 age bracket saying their savings is “insufficient,” which probably means nothing so far.

But perception of what they need is also an important consideration. In a survey conducted in June of 2013, the Ministry of Internal Affairs found that the average household whose head is between 60 and 69 spent ¥259,695 a month. This amount dropped to ¥196,500 for households whose head was over 70. According to another survey conducted by the Central Council for Financial Services Information, respondents who are currently working believe, on average, that a retired person needs ¥260,000 a month to live off of.

The government organ, Japan Pension Service, says that the monthly pension income of a retired “model household” is ¥230,000 a month, which comes down to ¥100,000 for a husband who was enrolled in the company sponsored koseinenkin system, ¥65,000 for the same husband’s basic pension (kiso nenkin), and his wife’s own basic pension of ¥65,000. The model assumes that the husband and his employer paid into both pension systems for a full 40 years, and since the dependent wife, as the spouse of a full-time regular employee, is categorized as a “number 3″ national pension subscriber, she is assumed to have paid her fair share, even though, in reality, she paid nothing.

This model household, however, represents a minority. Many other households have heads who are non-regular workers or who were not consistent in terms of payment schedules over the years. And there are other factors that can reduce what a household can expect. The JPS survey found in July 2013 that the average retired household of a former regular employee who paid into the koseinenkin system was ¥215,780. The monthly benefit for people who paid into the basic pension system for a full forty years is now ¥65,541 a month, but the average payout is ¥49,947. Households whose heads are between 60 and 69 said on average that their pension income was 44,000 less than what they needed.

This latter point is important because payments for the basic pension don’t start until age 65 for both spouses, so even for a model household, that means if the breadwinner retires at 60, their pension income is only ¥100,000 for five years. That means they would need another ¥160,000 to reach the level that most people now think you need when you retire. So for those five years, the couple will be short about ¥9 million in total.

In addition, the government is trying to extend the starting age for koseinenkin payments. Right now it starts at 61, but eventually the government wants it to start at 65, or even later, so that limit will rise gradually in the future, further reducing the pension amounts that people receive if they retire at 60. That’s why the government is trying to encourage employers to retain employees even after their mandatory retirement age. According to Asahi Shimbun, employees who are retained after retirement are essentially let go and then rehired at one-fourth to one-third their former salaries. There is nothing in the new law that guarantees a minimum wage for these workers.

And with boomer retirement increasing through to the middle of the next decade, it’s assumed that senior welfare rolls will just keep increasing as well. In 2011, 46.4 percent of the 2 million people on welfare were over 65. The majority of these people are seniors who only receive basic pensions and have no other income or property. The only bright spot is that many boomers already own their homes, so at least they won’t end up on the streets.

Does an increase in summer bonuses mean a healthier economy?

Saturday, June 21st, 2014

It’s that time of year again, the season when employers, both public and private, hand out their summer bonuses. In recent years the recession has kept the amounts down despite the fact that regular employees tend to consider them as an integral part of their annual salaries. In fact, society in general thinks that, as proven by the practice of incorporating bonuses into repayment schedules for home loans. Technically, however, bonuses are literally bonuses: Employers are not obliged to pay them, and actually use them as a kind of safety valve to adjust personnel expenditures twice a year.

Josei Jishin lists 35 of the  top 55 major corporations in terms of size of summer bonus for 35-year-old regular employees

Josei Jishin lists 55 major corporations in terms of size of summer bonus for 35-year-old regular employees

This summer the news sounds good. Bonuses are, on average, higher than they were last year, by about 8.8 percent, according to a survey of 74 companies carried out by Keidanren, Japan’s biggest business lobby. The average bonus for a 35-year-old regular worker will be ¥1.5 million, while that for a manager in his 40s or 50s is above ¥3 million. It’s the highest year-on-year increase on record.

According to Josei Jishin magazine, the biggest bonuses are being given out by trading companies, which makes sense. Trading companies, who do all their business overseas, enjoyed a huge windfall after the government’s monetary easing policy forced down the value of the yen.

Export-oriented manufacturers also did well for the same reason. Toyota’s average summer bonus for a 35-year-old employee is ¥1.23 million, though that sounds sort of stingy considering that the company saw a 73 percent rise in profits. Securities companies, which also benefited from Abenomics, were high on the list (Daiwa Shoken ¥1.35 million), but their employees’ compensations tend to be based more on personal accomplishments rather than corporate achievement, which is the classic definition of a bonus.

In 13th place on the Josei Jishin list is NTT DoCoMo, at ¥935,000, the highest company to record a drop in average bonus pay compared to last year. In fact, only two companies on the list of 55 companies announced a decrease.

What’s notable about the list is that all the companies are big. Smaller firms, it should be noted, aren’t doing as well in the recovery, and while average bonuses have gone up, the actual number of bonuses given out has gone down, from 38.6 million in 2013 to a projected 37.4 million this year.

Economist Hiroko Ogiwara pointed out to the magazine that while automobile makers did really well, their suppliers barely kept up and so didn’t give out much in the way of bonuses. NTT didn’t do as well as last year because it has no export-related business. And domestic companies that rely on imports, like processed food manufacturers, have suffered due to higher costs for ingredients. Moreover, the labor shortage in the retail and service industries pushed up personnel costs. Sukiya, the largest gyudon (beef bowl) chain in Japan, could only afford an average ¥350,000 to its regular employees (meaning not to restaurant staff). Power companies also were cheap with bonuses because of their continuing reliance on imported fuel. Kyushu Power’s average was only ¥300,000.

CONTINUE READING about summer bonuses →

Japanese low-cost carriers hit hard by pilot shortage

Sunday, May 25th, 2014

Onward and upward: Plane taking off from Narita airport

Onward and upward: Plane taking off from Narita International Airport

Low-cost carriers (LCC ) — airlines with cheaper fares than standard carriers — came relatively late to Japan. Peach Aviation was the first in March 2012, followed by Jetstar Japan, an affiliate of Australia’s Qantas Airlines, in July of the same year, and then Air Asia Japan, which has since changed its name to Vanilla Air, for some reason. (Skymark, which also charges less that most airlines, is technically not an LCC.)

As of March, LCCs accounted for 7.5 percent of domestic passengers, which isn’t bad, and growth seemed assured, but suddenly all three bargain airlines have hit a wall. Vanilla recently announced that it will cancel 154 flights, or 20 percent of its schedule, for June, and Peach said it would curtail its own schedule by more than 2,000 flights through October. Jetstar had planned to expand its flight coverage this year but has since postponed those plans.

The reason is a serious shortage of pilots, in particular flight captains. Vanilla says it has had personnel problems recently due to pilots quitting or taking sick leave, but its president, Tomonori Ishii, has assured the public that it will address the problem by “borrowing” personnel from its parent, ANA, but on a temporary basis. Of Peach’s 52 captains, eight were out of action due to illness or injury, but, in fact, the problem is more intractable.

CONTINUE READING about Japan's pilot shortage →

Australian EPA: Let them eat beef (but not cheese)

Monday, April 14th, 2014

Stuck in the middle: Australian cheese competing in the dairy case with New Zealand and Switzerland

Stuck in the middle: Australia cheese competing in the dairy case with New Zealand and Switzerland

Though its participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership seems to be dead in the water for the time being, last week Japan signed an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Australia that could revive Japan’s TPP hopes, but before we get to who lost and who won in the Australian deal, let’s talk about cheese.

Personally, we were looking forward to some sort or tariff reduction on Aussie cheese, not because we prefer Aussie cheese over other kinds, but because all so-called natural cheese — meaning not processed — is expensive in Japan owing to the dairy farmers lobby and their demand for high tariffs on imported milk products.

Japan is close to an EPA with the European Union, but the cheese tariff will likely remain. The Australian EPA only addresses natural cheese that is exported to Japan for purposes of being blended with other ingredients to make processed cheese. The tariff on such cheeses will be reduced from 40 to 0 percent over time, but the tariff on natural cheese that is sold to the public in stores will remain at 29.8 percent, so no cheap cheddar right away.

CONTINUE READING about Japan's EPA with Australia →

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